Prediction Markets Price 74% Odds of Fed Hold in September
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- Polymarket prices a 74% chance of no change at the next Fed meeting, with a quarter-point hike at 25% and a cut near 1%, backed by $33.9 million in volume.
- Kalshi's CFTC-regulated September Fed-decision contract lands at 73.5% odds for a hold, with roughly $10 million wagered on the outcome.
- Myriad's "Fed Decision in September?" market lists "No Change" trading around 71% (brief cites ~75%), resolving after the September 15–16 FOMC meeting.
- FOMC July meeting held the rate at 3.50%–3.75% in a divided 9–3 vote, with three members pushing for a hike — and traders are bracing for a potential surprise hike despite hold being the base case.
- A Reuters poll found nearly 70% of economists expect no change through the rest of 2026, extending the hold expectation beyond just September.
Why it matters: With three prediction platforms clustered at 73-75% hold odds and 70% of economists aligned through 2026, the September decision is heavily priced as a non-event — but the 9-3 July split and the fact traders are hedging for a surprise hike shows the consensus rests on a narrow base that could snap if inflation data shifts. Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have wavered around prior holds, would face the largest repositioning risk on any hawkish deviation.
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