Nasdaq Futures Lead Rebound as Iran Strikes Hit Markets
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- Nasdaq 100 E-minis led the rebound at +186 points (0.63%), with S&P 500 E-minis up 14 points (0.19%) and Dow E-minis up just 14 points (0.03%) as of 5:27 a.m. ET.
- U.S. military launched new strikes on Iran on Wednesday to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to shipping, and Iran retaliated with attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain.
- President Trump said hours before the strikes that he believed the interim ceasefire with Iran was 'over'; oil futures fell about 1% Thursday, easing from two-week highs.
- Federal Reserve under new Chair Kevin Warsh held rates steady at the June meeting, but minutes released Wednesday showed some policymakers saw a case for raising borrowing costs before agreeing to hold.
- Traders are pricing in at least one rate hike by end of 2026 per LSEG data, per UBS Global Wealth Management CIO Mark Haefele, who expects hawkish rhetoric to soften once second-round inflation effects look limited.
- Levi Strauss (LEVI.N) dropped 6% in premarket trading even after the denim maker raised its annual sales forecast.
- The S&P 500 and Dow ended Wednesday lower while the Nasdaq eked out a marginal gain, with investors reassessing optimism that a resolution could support risk assets.
Why it matters: With the Iran ceasefire declared 'over' and Brent off two-week highs, markets face a dual threat: geopolitical oil disruption that could reignite inflation, and a Fed where some policymakers already see a case for rate hikes. Nasdaq's 0.6% premarket lead suggests traders are buying the dip in tech while the broader Dow barely moves, signaling narrow conviction that the Strait of Hormuz stays open.
