Why Cuba Is Not Venezuela for Trump
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- Trump has signaled designs on Cuba — saying he'll have the "honor of taking" the island while officials floated finding a "Cuban Delcy" successor — but University of Miami's Michael Bustamante argues Cuba's lack of significant oil reserves and deeply entrenched one-party political system make the Venezuela playbook inapplicable.
- The Trump administration has imposed strict new sanctions and an effective oil blockade on Havana, prompting Cuba to announce economic reforms on paper while remaining "allergic" to any political change driven by U.S. pressure.
- Raúl Castro was recently indicted in U.S. court, but at 95 years old, a Maduro-style military extraction operation appears off the table, Bustamante says, and no internal reformer exists who has already stuck their neck out as Delcy Rodríguez did in Venezuela.
- The White House cites national security concerns — Cuba's ties to Russia and China, alleged intelligence listening posts, and regional interference — while Bustamante counters that economic collapse 90 miles from U.S. shores could trigger mass migration and create openings for bad actors.
- The administration has paired maximum economic pressure with direct, "bizarre" talks with Raúl Castro's grandson, attempting to thread a needle toward a negotiated outcome short of military action.
Why it matters: Cuba lacks the two features that made the Venezuela operation viable — significant oil to attract extraction and an insider like Delcy Rodríguez willing to cut a deal — meaning Trump's maximum-pressure campaign may produce economic collapse without political transition. The simultaneous engagement with Raúl Castro's grandson signals the White House already knows it has no clean off-ramp.
