The Iran war doesn’t immediately jeopardize Taiwan
Why it matters: The US military's willingness to engage Iran directly impacts China's strategic decisions regarding a potential invasion of Taiwan.
- US military actions against Iran are viewed by critics as overly aggressive, impatient, and lacking allied consultation, despite Iran posing no imminent threat.
- Taiwan's immediate concern is whether the US would be aggressive enough to intervene militarily in its defense, rather than staying out of a cross-Strait war.
- Commentators including Robert Dujarric, John Bolton, and Simon Tinsdall suggest Trump's foreign policy leans towards isolationism, potentially leading him to avoid a war in Asia.
- China, which prefers 'gray zone tactics,' finds Trump's bold actions—like the Soleimani strike and the bombardment of Iran—shocking, making it difficult to confidently conclude the US would not intervene in Taiwan.
- The Iran war demonstrates that the US president does not rule out deploying a large number of forces far abroad, which could deter China despite China being a much tougher adversary than Iran.
- America's 'might is right' doctrine, as seen in actions against Iran and Venezuela, could be interpreted by Xi Jinping as a 'green light' for China to attack Taiwan, presenting a conflicting perspective on the war's impact.
The US military campaign against Iran, while criticized for its aggression and lack of allied consultation, paradoxically makes China less confident that the US would avoid intervening in a Taiwan conflict. While some observers like Robert Dujarric and John Bolton suggest Trump's isolationist tendencies might lead him to avoid an Asian war, the boldness of US actions against Iran and Venezuela signals to China that the US is willing to deploy forces far abroad, complicating Beijing's calculus for a Taiwan invasion.
