Forget Trump – Netanyahu’s Iran endgame is what really matters
Why it matters: The divergent US and Israeli strategies risk escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf and potentially disrupting global oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz.
- The US and Israel have lost strategic initiative in the second month of the war, struggling against Iran's resilience.
- The Trump administration is flailing in its justification for the war, as it contradicts the 1980 Carter Doctrine which aimed to prevent any single power from controlling the Persian Gulf.
- Israel's strategic objectives differ significantly, focusing on dismantling the Iran-backed Axis of Resistance (Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas) which seeks to resist US regional domination and destroy Israel.
- The Netanyahu government has implemented its 'mowing the grass' strategy against Hamas, aiming to eliminate leadership and degrade capabilities, a departure from previous US restraint on Israeli military action against axis members.
- The Carter Doctrine established the permanent stationing of the US Fifth Fleet and economic sanctions to protect US vital interests in the Persian Gulf, a strategy that previously accepted a tentative status quo with Iran to prevent Strait of Hormuz access denial.
The ongoing war between the US, Israel, and Iran has seen the US and Israel lose strategic initiative due to Iran's resilience and their own conflicting objectives. While the US's long-standing Carter Doctrine prioritizes maintaining Gulf stability and preventing control of the Persian Gulf, Israel's 'mowing the grass' strategy aims to dismantle the Axis of Resistance, particularly Iran's support for groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.
