China drills for US nuclear attack in a Taiwan war
Why it matters: These drills indicate a Taiwan conflict could escalate into a limited nuclear war in Asia.
- China’s Eastern Theater Command conducted nuclear-response drills in the Taiwan Strait, simulating rapid detection and decontamination operations, as reported by the SCMP.
- Greg Weaver (Atlantic Council) notes that China’s amphibious landing fleet is highly vulnerable to nuclear attack in a Taiwan invasion scenario.
- Matthew Kroenig (Atlantic Council) outlines that the US could consider limited nuclear first use against off-mainland targets like PLAN vessels if conventional forces are insufficient to stop an invasion.
- David Kearn (War on the Rocks) argues against the proposed US first use of tactical nuclear weapons, offering a differing perspective on escalation control.
China's recent nuclear-response drills in the Taiwan Strait, reported by the SCMP, signal its preparation for a potential nuclear conflict over Taiwan, anticipating that the US and its allies might use tactical nuclear weapons to counter China's conventional military advantages. While Atlantic Council reports by Weaver and Kroenig suggest the US could employ tactical nukes against China's invasion fleet to achieve decisive effects and limit escalation, David Kearn argues against this proposed first use.
