Bitcoin tracks equity bounce, but $390 million ETF outflow week keeps bulls on back foot
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- Bitcoin steadied above $63,000 Monday, up 0.8% since midnight UTC (BTC at $64,431.17), tracking a 0.5% gain in Nasdaq 100 futures to their highest level since July 2 as the largest cryptocurrency followed U.S. equities without an obvious catalyst of its own.
- U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs shed a net $390 million across four days of outflows last week — the largest weekly withdrawal in six weeks, including the first three-day streak of redemptions since the end of July.
- Solana ETFs bucked the trend with their strongest weekly inflows since mid-May, while ether ETF flows stayed limited for the week.
- Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn cut his odds on the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 to roughly 10% on Aug. 14, down from 75% in May; prediction markets now price the bill at around 17%, with a cloture vote scheduled for Sept. 15 when the Senate returns from recess.
- Bitcoin derivatives show a thin-liquidity setup: notional open interest hit $48 billion, nearly double the 24-hour trading volume — a gap that, per the source, raises the odds of wild price swings on any mass liquidation event.
- Combined centralized-exchange volumes fell 23.9% to $3.76 trillion in July, the lowest since November 2023, as DEX spot market share climbed to a record 19.5% and RWA perpetuals hit $460 billion.
Why it matters: With $48 billion in BTC open interest sitting nearly double the 24-hour trading volume, the derivatives book is structurally set up for outsized price swings on any forced selling — and the $390 million ETF withdrawal last week shows traditional buyers are pulling back at the fastest pace in six weeks. The Clarity Act's 10% legislative odds strip out a major bullish catalyst just as traders head into the Sept. 15 cloture vote.
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