EU plans to pay China to help Ukraine kill Russians
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- Financial Times reported on July 15 that Ukraine obtained a carve-out from a €6 billion EU tranche to buy Chinese drone components, with the first €1 billion already disbursed.
- Zelensky said the deal aims to double annual drone production to 20 million, a target the article notes neither the EU nor Ukraine can hit without Chinese industrial capacity.
- New York Times found that by 2024, the vast majority of Ukrainian drones were domestically assembled using Chinese parts; a year later, the Chinese component share had fallen to about 38%.
- A Ukrainian official told the NYT that Ukrainian and Russian companies often buy parts from the same Chinese factories, blurring the line between adversary supply chains.
- Ukraine's former deputy defense minister confirmed in summer 2023 that Ukrainian volunteers procure Chinese drones for the armed forces.
- The article argues China prefers an indefinite Ukraine conflict because it keeps the US tied down in Europe, weakens Russia into a junior partner, and could help Beijing secure Power of Siberia 2 gas terms.
- Xi declared a new vision of "constructive strategic stability" with the US during Trump's recent Beijing visit, which the piece suggests could be a quid pro quo for Trump waiving the Lindsey Graham 500% tariff bill in exchange for arming Ukraine at scale.
Why it matters: EU money meant to arm Ukraine against Russia would flow into Chinese factories that — per a Ukrainian official — also supply Russian drones, making Beijing the quiet arms dealer on both sides while leveraging its role for tariff relief from Trump under Xi's new 'constructive strategic stability' framework.
