Altman Insists on $1 Trillion OpenAI IPO After SpaceX Debut
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- Sam Altman reportedly refuses to take OpenAI public at any valuation below $1 trillion, encouraged by investor demand for SpaceX's IPO that pushed that company's valuation past $2 trillion
- SpaceX's IPO was heavily oversubscribed with strong retail participation, but the stock rose to around $225 within days before falling roughly a third over the following two weeks—leaving near-the-top buyers at a loss
- OpenAI has no prospectus, no confirmed price, and no firm IPO timeline, with reports pointing to 2027, even as the company continues to run large losses
- Viram Shah, CEO of Vested Finance, draws a sharp line between IPO demand and investor return, calling a valuation above $1 trillion for a loss-making business a fundamentally different proposition than a lower entry
- The OpenAI-SpaceX comparison is more apples-to-apples than it looks because most of SpaceX's future growth is expected to come from AI-driven businesses
- Indian investors face three concrete hurdles: sizing a position in a loss-making company pegged to future expectations, tolerating 30% weekly swings, and actually getting allocated shares in a heavily oversubscribed US offering
Why it matters: A $1 trillion floor for OpenAI reframes the question for public-market investors from 'is the company good?' to 'is the entry price sane?' SpaceX proved that oversubscription and a strong debut don't guarantee returns—OpenAI's continued losses mean the gap between valuation and fundamentals could be wider at a $1T+ listing, and Indian retail investors may not even get allocated shares.
