Ukraine strikes cripple Russian refineries, trigger fuel crisis
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- Ukraine has carried out over 50 reported attacks on Russian oil refineries, depots, and terminals since late March 2026, significantly reducing the country's refining capacity.
- Russia processed 25% less crude oil in June 2026 compared to the previous year—down to 3.95 million barrels per day, the lowest level in over two decades, according to Energy Intelligence analyst Gary Peach.
- Putin acknowledged 'problems persist' with fuel availability, admitting to queues at gas stations and difficulty finding certain fuel grades, though he described the situation as 'not critical' and 'temporary'.
- Over half of Russia's regions implemented some form of gas rationing by late June 2026, with limits on purchases and reports of hoarding, while portable toilets were deployed at stations in Irkutsk due to hours-long lines.
- Chris Weafer, CEO of Macro-Advisory Ltd., stated that about a third of Russia’s refining capacity is offline and that logistics delays mean it will take weeks to redistribute existing fuel supplies to where they are needed.
- Repairs to damaged refineries are expected to take months—such as the Moscow Oil Refinery, which requires at least three months to fix and previously supplied 40% of the capital’s fuel—due to sanctions and difficulty sourcing specialized equipment.
Why it matters: The sustained Ukrainian campaign has crippled a core sector of Russia’s domestic economy, forcing reallocation of military and logistical resources. With harvest season increasing fuel demand and repairs delayed by sanctions, the shortages will likely persist through summer, undermining public confidence despite Kremlin assurances.
