Catastrophic storms to test China’s resilience in 2026, scientists warn
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- China's National Climate Center forecasts up to six typhoons forming in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea in July — nearly double the historical average of 3.8 — with up to three making landfall versus the norm of 1.8.
- Typhoon Maysak made landfall on Hainan last week and swept into Guangxi, where reservoir failures killed at least six people, affected 375,000 others, and stranded more than 1,000 in the mountains per a social media plea Reuters could not verify.
- Super Typhoon Bavi, a storm measuring more than 1,000km in diameter with winds exceeding 290kmh, is the second tropical cyclone to arrive in China within a week, with China bracing for its July 11 landfall.
- Hengzhou, a rural city of more than 1 million residents with six medium-sized and nearly 200 smaller reservoirs, is the starting point of a 70 billion yuan (S$13.3 billion) canal project scheduled to open in September.
- Benjamin Horton, dean of the School of Energy and Environment at City University of Hong Kong, warned that extreme events are increasing in magnitude 'with no time to recover,' calling the pattern something that 'is just going to repeat and repeat.'
- Hui Su of Hong Kong University of Science and Technology said the 2026 season is 'more intense and damaging than a typical year,' with El Nino shifting typhoon tracks westward toward China's coast and climate change making storms wetter.
- The World Meteorological Organization raised its forecast for rapid emergence of a strong El Nino in coming months, a periodic Pacific warming pattern linked to higher global temperatures and elevated extreme weather risk.
Why it matters: Hengzhou's reservoir failures have killed six and affected 375,000 people, and the city is the starting point of China's 70 billion yuan canal project scheduled to open in September. The National Climate Center's forecast of up to six July typhoons — nearly double the norm — and El Nino's westward track shift put this region squarely in the 2026 storm path.
