Jeremy Bowen: Trump is waging war based on instinct and it isn't working
Why it matters: Trump's instinct-led foreign policy risks escalating Middle East tensions without a clear path to resolution.
- Jeremy Bowen asserts that Trump's war strategy against Iran, based on instinct rather than planning, is not working, drawing parallels to historical military wisdom.
- Trump is presented with a stark choice: escalate the war or declare a victory that will fool no one, as Iran's regime has shown unexpected resilience.
- Helmuth von Moltke the Elder and Mike Tyson are cited for their similar observations on plans failing upon contact with the enemy, highlighting the unpredictability of warfare.
- Dwight D. Eisenhower's philosophy, "plans are worthless, but planning is everything," is contrasted with Trump's approach, emphasizing the importance of disciplined preparation for adapting to the unexpected.
- Iran's regime has demonstrated resilience and is fighting back effectively, contrary to what Trump may have expected, especially after the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
- Trump's strategy is criticized for a "yawning lack of comprehension" regarding the differences between Venezuela and Iran, suggesting he hoped for a repeat of the swift resolution seen with Nicolás Maduro.
Jeremy Bowen argues that President Trump's instinct-driven approach to the conflict with Iran, initiated with joint US-Israeli airstrikes, is failing because it lacks strategic planning and underestimates the Iranian regime's resilience. Unlike the swift resolution seen in Venezuela, Iran has not capitulated, forcing Trump into a difficult choice between escalating the war or declaring a hollow victory.
