SpaceX Falls 13.6% on $15.8B AI Capex
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- SpaceX (SPCX) closed down 13.6% at $108.27 on Wednesday, an all-time closing low, one day after posting its first quarterly results as a public company.
- SpaceX reported Q2 revenue of $7.8 billion (vs. $6.81 billion consensus) and adjusted EBITDA of $3.5 billion (vs. $2.0 billion expected), beating estimates on the top and bottom lines.
- AI capital expenditures ballooned to $15.8 billion in Q2, more than double the $7.7 billion spent in Q1, while the AI segment posted a $1.26 billion operating loss — better than the $2.39 billion loss analysts expected.
- JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth projected SpaceX capex of nearly $200 billion in both 2027 and 2028, warning the spending trajectory pressures free cash flow, though he cited Musk's $100 billion year-end revenue run-rate target as a positive.
- A lockup expiration on August 6 will free up to 20% of shares for sale — roughly triple the current tradable float — adding supply-side pressure to a stock already in free fall, per Epistrophy Capital's Cory Johnson.
- SpaceX announced a partnership with Nvidia to design its Starmind AI-1 orbital data-center payload using Rubin GPUs and Vera CPUs, with Musk naming Nvidia the exclusive supplier of SpaceX's AI chips.
- Starlink topped 12 million subscribers in Q2, with the connectivity unit posting $2.60 billion in adjusted EBITDA against $2.41 billion estimates, while Musk said a SpaceX-Tesla merger remains in play and the WSJ reported Tesla is weighing a sale of its China business to clear the path.
Why it matters: SpaceX beat on revenue and EBITDA yet still fell 13.6% — the market is penalizing the $15.8 billion AI capex sprint and bracing for the August 6 lockup expiration that triples the tradable float. With JPMorgan modeling $200 billion in 2027-2028 capex, early shareholders are voting on whether Musk's $100 billion revenue run-rate can outpace a cash burn that even a Starmind-Nvidia partnership won't defray overnight.
