Markets Confident OpenAI Releases Its Next AI Model in Weeks — SkimNews
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- OpenAI said on August 7 it slowed Astra's rollout after internal tests showed 'significant advancements in agentic coding and cybersecurity' it couldn't rule out as 'Critical' — a level where the model could find and build zero-day exploits across hardened systems without human help.
- Polymarket traders give 59% odds of an Astra launch by September 15 (on roughly $27,600 in volume) and about 72% by September 30 (on roughly $35,600), with a separate 'which week' market favoring August 31–September 6 at 39%.
- Myriad traders place 31% odds on an end-of-September release, 19% on September 15, and 5% on August 21 (but rising), per the market run by Decrypt's parent company Dastan.
- Astra — OpenAI's internal name for its next model, reportedly GPT-6 — has no public release date, so Polymarket contracts resolve on OpenAI's own announcement.
- Back in July, Polymarket odds of a GPT-6 release by September 30 sat at around 78%, before OpenAI's cyber-risk disclosure cooled confidence.
- OpenAI said Astra 'was not involved in exploiting Hugging Face,' distancing the model from a recent incident as it weighed how to ship something it says it still can't fully safety-test.
Why it matters: OpenAI admits it can't rule out Astra reaching a 'Critical' cyber threshold — meaning it could autonomously exploit hardened systems — yet Polymarket traders are pricing a 72% chance of a September 30 release. Roughly $63,000 in contract volume is essentially betting that the company's safety concerns won't translate into a launch delay past Q3.
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