Traders on Kalshi think the Nasdaq-100 will end 2026 above 30,000, predicting a cooler second half of the year
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- Kalshi traders assign about 50-50 odds that the Nasdaq-100 will close 2026 above 30,000, a level the index first crossed in late May before pulling back.
- The Nasdaq-100 sat roughly 1% below 30,000 at midday Tuesday and is up about 18% year-to-date, after surging more than 33% between its March 30 Iran-war lows and June 2 on renewed AI-trade confidence.
- Kalshi contracts show only 40% odds the index's 2026 high ends above 32,000 and just 27% odds it climbs above 33,000 by year-end, with the 2026 intraday high currently 30,762 set on June 3.
- UBS expects the broader market rally to continue in the second half, but CIO Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi wrote that investors are increasingly rotating beyond tech toward other sectors as the AI trade broadens.
- SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100 on Tuesday, a membership change arriving just days before Kalshi contracts resolve based on Dec. 31 prices supplied by Google Finance.
- CNBC and Kalshi disclosed a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment, a relevant caveat for interpreting the platform's reported odds.
Why it matters: The 50-50 split at 30,000 — a level the index already touched once in late May — tells you prediction-market participants don't see a decisive second-half breakout after the 18% year-to-date rally. With UBS flagging rotation out of tech just as SpaceX joined the index on Tuesday, even the composition of the Nasdaq-100 is changing under traders' feet.
