Mali junta readies counter‑offensive after Kidal loss
Get the Geopolitics newsletter
Daily geopolitics — wars, elections, sanctions, the diplomatic moves that move markets. Free.
- Rebel groups – The separatist Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and al‑Qaeda‑linked JNIM launched coordinated assaults, seized Kidal, entered Bamako and killed Defence Minister Sadio Camara.
- Col Assimi Goïta – The junta leader addressed the nation three days after the attacks, pledged to neutralise the attackers and met with Russia’s ambassador Igor Gromyko.
- Russian forces – The withdrawal of Russian and Malian troops from Kidal and the death of Camara, a key liaison with Moscow, have damaged Russia’s reputation as a reliable security partner in Mali.
- Control Risks – Senior analyst Beverly Ochieng said the junta’s survival depends on a successful counter‑offensive, while others warn the junta may seek new partners such as Turkey or the United States, or risk a coup or insurgent takeover.
- FLA – The group announced plans to move south from Kidal to capture Gao and, subsequently, Timbuktu.
- Alliance of Sahel States – The bloc of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso has pledged support for Mali but has not yet acted as a joint fighting force.
Why it matters: The junta’s survival now rests on a counter‑offensive; the death of Defence Minister Camara weakens military coordination and strains ties with Russia; the FLA’s advance expands the rebel front, which the article links to a risk of prolonged conflict, reshaping the Sahel’s power balance.
