‘Moana’ Could Lose at Least $100 Million in Theaters. Does Disney Need to Rethink Its Live-Action Remakes?
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- Moana (live-action remake) opened to $43 million domestic and $95 million global, a far-below-expectations debut for a film costing $250 million to produce and roughly $120 million to promote, requiring an estimated $600 million globally to break even.
- Disney could lose more than $100 million theatrically on the film if it follows the box-office trajectory of 2025's "Snow White," which grossed $205 million globally against a $250 million budget.
- Dwayne Johnson was paid close to $30 million as a producer and star reprising Maui, and production was further inflated by delays tied to the 2023 labor strikes.
- Disney has averaged 27 years between original animated releases and their live-action remakes, but "Moana 2" hit theaters just two years before the remake, eliminating the nostalgia gap that fueled billion-dollar hits like "Beauty and the Beast" and "The Lion King."
- "Lilo & Stitch" (2025) proved the formula can still work — a billion-dollar hit from a $100 million budget — but the success came from a 23-year gap and no competing recent sequel, unlike "Moana."
- "Tangled" is the only live-action remake currently filming, with Disney prioritizing a "Lilo & Stitch" sequel and spinoffs on Cinderella's stepsisters and "Beauty and the Beast" villain Gaston as the live-action slate thins out.
- Audiences gave the film a solid "A-" CinemaScore despite critics calling it a shot-for-shot retread, and Disney is hoping for "Mufasa"-style legs after a soft opening, though it faces immediate competition from "Toy Story 5" and "Minions & Monsters."
Why it matters: The "Moana" flop exposes a timing problem Disney can't easily fix: with most pre-2000 animated titles already remade and sequels eating into the nostalgia window, the studio faces shrinking returns on a strategy that once reliably delivered $1 billion grossers. Each misfire now carries a $250M-plus price tag, and Johnson's backend-heavy deal structure means the losses compound quickly.
