World Cup could boost the June jobs report by 40,000, Goldman estimates
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- Goldman Sachs projects the World Cup boosted June payroll growth by approximately 40,000 positions, concentrated in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and trade and transportation sectors.
- Dow Jones consensus expects nonfarm payrolls to grow by 115,000 in June, a step down from May's 172,000 increase.
- Goldman forecasts total nonfarm payroll growth of 140,000 for June, significantly better than the 20,000 jobs lost in June 2025.
- Homebase data shows the 11 World Cup hosting cities saw hiring decline just 1.2% year-over-year, while non-host cities declined 3.5%.
- Hospitality hiring rose 9.5% according to Homebase, a likely World Cup-related boost.
- Goldman economists Ronnie Walker and Jessica Rindels authored the forecast note.
- The initial June payroll count has been revised lower in each of the past four years, suggesting an upward bias on first estimates that could push the final figure higher.
Why it matters: For Fed policymakers parsing the June jobs data, the World Cup's ~40,000-job lift is masking underlying cooling — even Goldman's above-consensus 140,000 forecast falls well short of May's 172,000, and the four-year pattern of upward first-estimate revisions means the headline number could still surprise to the upside.
