World Cup could boost the June jobs report by 40,000, Goldman estimates
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- Goldman Sachs estimates the World Cup could contribute ~40,000 jobs to June's nonfarm payrolls, bringing its total growth forecast to 140,000—above the Dow Jones consensus of 115,000.
- Homebase payroll data shows the 11 World Cup host cities saw hiring decline just 1.2% year-over-year in June, compared to a 3.5% decline in non-host cities.
- Hospitality hiring rose 9.5% per Homebase, with Goldman attributing the World Cup boost to leisure/hospitality, professional and business services, and trade and transportation sectors.
- Goldman economists Ronnie Walker and Jessica Rindels cited historical analysis supporting the 40,000 estimate in a client note.
- The Dow Jones consensus of 115,000 would be a step down from May's 172,000 gain, while June 2025 actually shed 20,000 jobs.
- Goldman noted June payrolls tend to show an upward bias on first release, though the initial June count has been revised lower in each of the past four years.
Why it matters: Goldman's 140,000 estimate sits 25,000 above the 115,000 Dow Jones consensus, so a World Cup-fueled beat could give traders and Fed watchers a misleadingly positive read on labor market strength. The boost is concentrated in hospitality and service sectors, meaning a strong headline may mask the broader year-over-year cooling visible in the host-vs-non-host city data.
