US-Iran War Reshaping Africa's Energy, Security Options
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- Russia and Turkiye are positioned to expand their roles in African security affairs as Iran's capacity to sustain overseas partnerships wanes, with Russia pushing military cooperation through the Africa Corps and Ankara expanding defense exports, drone technology, training programmes and diplomatic engagement.
- Sudan's civil war is increasingly shaped by external alliances and Red Sea rivalries, and Leena Badri, a nonresident fellow at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, told Al Jazeera that Saudi-UAE rivalry over Sudan is deepening rather than easing despite hopes the Iran crisis would push the two Gulf states toward coordination.
- Africa's energy vulnerability is structural: the continent exports most of its crude oil while importing a large share of refined petroleum, leaving East and Southern African fuel importers directly exposed to any prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption on top of Red Sea shipping attacks since 2023.
- Nigeria's Dangote Refinery, operating at 650,000 barrels per day, has begun reducing Nigeria's dependence on imported refined fuels and is widely cited by analysts as a model for the domestic refining expansion that policymakers now want accelerated.
- Analysts including South Africa-based international relations analyst Aaliyah Vayez and Marie Camara, head of public sector at the Africa CEO Forum, said the crisis should push governments to diversify partnerships, expand refining capacity and accelerate integration through the African Continental Free Trade Area rather than treating reform as another temporary effort.
- A proposed regional refinery project on the East African coast is under discussion as one response to fuel-import dependence, though the article notes the key question is whether momentum for reform will survive once markets and shipping routes stabilize.
Why it matters: African economies export crude oil yet import most of their refined fuel, so a Strait of Hormuz disruption hits the continent on both ends of the barrel and accelerates pressure to build out facilities like the 650,000 bpd Dangote Refinery, expand regional refining, and reroute trade — while Russia, Turkiye, Saudi Arabia and the UAE compete to fill any vacuum left by reduced Iranian engagement.
