Trump falling into Iran’s asymmetric resolve trap
Why it matters: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up oil and gas prices worldwide, impacting global economies.
- Washington's war plans against Iran have largely failed, with the Iranian people not rising up and hard-line leaders remaining in power.
- Iran has demonstrated its resolve by continuing to hit targets across the Middle East with missiles and drones, and by closing the Strait of Hormuz, driving up global oil and gas prices.
- Tehran has rejected a 15-point US plan for a ceasefire, defying Trump’s demand for “unconditional surrender,” highlighting its determination.
- The author, a scholar researching US forever wars, argues that the US has fallen into the 'asymmetric resolve trap,' where a stronger power with less determination fights a weaker state with near-boundless resolve.
- Historical examples like the Persian army against the Scythians, the US in Vietnam and Afghanistan, and the Soviet Union in Afghanistan illustrate how stronger powers can be defeated by weaker, more determined adversaries.
The United States' strategy against Iran has faltered, with the Iranian people not revolting and Tehran rejecting a US ceasefire plan, leading to increased global oil prices after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. This failure is attributed to the 'asymmetric resolve trap,' where a stronger power with less determination (US) confronts a weaker state (Iran) whose very existence is at stake, giving it boundless resolve to fight.
