Nvidia Earnings, Jackson Hole to Test Stock Rally
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- Nvidia reports Q2 results on Aug. 26, serving as a proxy for the broader AI ecosystem after recently partnering with six financial institutions on financing platforms targeting over US$500 billion for AI infrastructure.
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh makes his first Jackson Hole appearance Aug. 27-29 since taking office in May 2026, having rattled markets at the July meeting by stepping away from traditional forward guidance.
- The 30-year Treasury yield surged to its highest level since 2007 this week, pushing the S&P 500 down for the week and roughly 2% below its record high.
- The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped about 5% for the week as rising yields weighed on chip stocks tied to the AI infrastructure buildout.
- Markets are pricing in a 35% chance of a September rate hike, rising to 66% by December, per the article.
- The Treasury Department doubled buybacks of long-dated debt to calm markets, but yields rebounded on Thursday, offering only brief relief.
- Investors get July PCE data and a U.S. economic growth report before Jackson Hole, which could reshape interest-rate expectations heading into Warsh's debut.
Why it matters: Semiconductor investors face direct exposure if Nvidia disappoints on Aug. 26 — the Philadelphia chips index is already down 5% this week on bond yield fears. With September rate-hike odds at 35% and the 30-year yield at a 2007 high, Warsh's Jackson Hole tone could reset borrowing costs across the $500 billion AI infrastructure buildout.
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