USMNT Is Sportsbooks' Biggest World Cup Liability
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- The United States is the largest future liability across American sportsbooks, shortening from 60-1 to 30-1 after winning Group D, with Caesars head of soccer Mark Bickerdike calling the USMNT their "most-backed selection."
- France tops the championship odds at +350 with Argentina close behind at +430, both having passed Spain (+700, tied with England) after their respective 3-0 group-stage runs per DraftKings.
- Brazil moved from +950 to 12-1 with public betting action on the longer odds, while Portugal (13-1) and the Netherlands (15-1) also carry varying sportsbook liability per DraftKings, Caesars and BetMGM.
- The USMNT's wins over Paraguay and Australia ranked among the most-bet soccer games in sportsbook history, but their group-stage loss to Türkiye became BetMGM's most profitable game of the tournament.
- Lionel Messi is the Golden Boot favorite at -110 with Kylian Mbappé at +275, and all three superstars — plus Erling Haaland — hold liability for top scorer at major books.
- DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello said books "get smoked" on days when favorites like the US, Netherlands, Argentina and France win by multiple goals with stars scoring twice, while comparing 2026 World Cup handle to the NCAA basketball tournament.
Why it matters: The USMNT's odds have been cut in half by public money, meaning a deep American run now directly threatens sportsbook profitability. If the U.S. keeps advancing past the group stage, books face paying out on a team that was a 60-1 longshot just two weeks ago, potentially on the largest future-book liability they've ever carried into a soccer knockout round.
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