Wintermute: Bitcoin's 10% Rally Is Relief, Not Reversal
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- Bitcoin has jumped nearly 10% in the past week, recently trading at $64,023 after touching a two-week high above $64,500 on Monday.
- Wintermute called the move a 'textbook relief rally' driven by easing macro conditions, a more dovish Federal Reserve tone, and improving Ethereum and institutional headlines rather than a structural shift.
- Bitcoin ETFs snapped a 10-day outflow streak with more than $222 million in inflows on July 2, followed by another $265 million day on Monday, per Farside Investors data.
- Wintermute said one day of inflows doesn't make a trend and wants sustained inflows over consecutive sessions before reading a real reversal.
- Wintermute nonetheless said prices can grind 'a bit higher' from current levels, citing the flip in ETF flows as a reason for hope.
- Bitcoin remains nearly 50% below its all-time high of $126,080 set last October.
Why it matters: For traders positioning around a potential trend reversal, Wintermute's caution means the nearly 10% bounce and roughly $487 million in recent two-session ETF inflows haven't yet confirmed a structural bottom — Bitcoin is still down nearly 50% from its $126,080 October peak, and the firm wants consecutive sessions of inflows before treating this as more than a short-term squeeze.
