We ranked the best NFL teams to fall short of the Super Bowl: Stacking 16 historic near misses
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- 2023 Baltimore Ravens topped the list at 44.4% DVOA after going 13-4 and beating three other 10-plus-win teams by double digits, before a 17-10 AFC Championship loss to the Chiefs sealed by Zay Flowers' goal-line fumble.
- 2024 Baltimore Ravens ranked fourth at 40.9% DVOA, leading the league in offensive DVOA despite a 27-25 divisional loss to the Bills in which Mark Andrews dropped a 2-point conversion with 1:33 left.
- 1976 Pittsburgh Steelers checked in at 44.3% estimated DVOA with what the author calls possibly the best defense in NFL history — five shutouts and a 211-28 scoring margin over their final nine regular-season games — only to lose 24-7 to the Raiders after Franco Harris and Rocky Bleier were injured.
- 2010 New England Patriots posted a 42.4% DVOA that the source calls the most efficient offense in NFL history, outscoring opponents 32.4 points per game even after trading Randy Moss, before a divisional-round stunner to the Jets keyed by a botched fake punt.
- 1987 San Francisco 49ers earned a 36.5% DVOA after going 10-2 in strike games against real players, but lost 36-24 to the Vikings after Anthony Carter set an NFL playoff record with 227 receiving yards.
- 1973 Los Angeles Rams were eliminated by the Cowboys 27-16 after Drew Pearson's controversial 83-yard touchdown, in which Rams defenders Dave Elmendorf and Steve Preece collided — part of a 1970s run where the Rams went 10-4 or better every year from 1972-1978 without reaching a Super Bowl.
- 2022 Buffalo Bills were the only team in DVOA history to finish top-two in all three phases of the game (offense, defense, special teams), yet were bounced 27-10 by the Bengals in the divisional round.
Why it matters: The Ravens' back-to-back appearances at the top of a near-miss ranking — one team losing in the AFC Championship, the other in the divisional round — underscore how a franchise can dominate regular-season efficiency metrics (44.4% and 40.9% DVOA) and still come away empty in January, while the 2010 Patriots' entry at 42.4% DVOA shows the methodology can also crown historical offenses ahead of Super Bowl winners.
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