NATO Summit Tests Alliance as Trump Pushes Troop Withdrawals
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- NATO leaders from 32 countries gathered in Ankara for a two-day summit starting Tuesday, focused on defence investment, expanding Europe's defence industrial base, and long-term military support for Ukraine.
- Trump threatened to pull the US out of NATO, calling the relationship "one sided" and criticising European allies for refusing to participate in efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran conflict; the Pentagon on May 1 announced the withdrawal of about 5,000 troops from Germany following a force posture review.
- European allies and Canada increased defence investment by $139 billion in nominal terms in 2025, with overall European defence spending rising 62% between 2020 and 2025, following last year's pledge to spend the equivalent of 5% of GDP on defence.
- The International Institute for Security Studies estimates that replacing the most critical US conventional military capabilities would require roughly $1 trillion and could take a decade or more, as Europe remains heavily dependent on Washington for long-range strike, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, satellite, logistics, and integrated air and missile defence.
- Experts said a formal US withdrawal from NATO is unlikely, since it would require a two-thirds Senate majority or an act of Congress, though Ian Lesser of the German Marshall Fund described the alliance as "entering a period of profound adjustment."
Why it matters: European NATO members face a $1 trillion and decade-plus bill to replace the US capabilities they currently depend on for long-range strike, surveillance, and missile defence — a gap that Trump's 5,000-troop pullout from Germany and continued threats to scale back US commitments make more urgent, not less, heading into the Ankara summit.
