July CPI, PPI and Cardinal Health Headline Week Ahead
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- July CPI (Wednesday) and PPI (Thursday) lead the economic calendar, with FactSet economist consensus calling for 3.4% headline and 2.5% core year-over-year CPI, plus 0.1% headline and 0.3% core monthly PPI gains.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said early last week an Iran deal "may be coming," but the news never materialized, leaving markets needing further confirmation to sustain the optimism.
- Fed Governor Lisa Cook publicly tagged the AI data center buildout as inflationary alongside the Iran war, citing price increases for chips, tech equipment, software, utilities, copper, and energy, and said she's "prepared to act" on a rate hike.
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh pushed back, arguing AI proliferation will ultimately keep inflation low once it ramps up through productivity gains, even as Cook said the balance of risks has shifted toward inflation over employment.
- July nonfarm payrolls came in at a loss of 23,000 jobs versus expectations of +83,000, with unemployment ticking down to 4.1% and the participation rate falling to a multiyear low of 61.4% — a print that could keep the Fed on hold in September.
- Cardinal Health reports fiscal Q4 2026 Tuesday, trading within 1.5% of its all-time high, after peers Cencora and McKesson beat estimates and raised full-year guidance last week; specialty pharma strength and the Vizamyl Alzheimer's nuclear-medicine business will be focal points.
Why it matters: For the Fed, the inflation calculus just changed: Lisa Cook formally tagged AI capex as a structural price driver alongside oil, meaning even an Iran deal won't get inflation back to the 2% target on its own. That makes Wednesday's CPI and Cardinal Health's fiscal 2027 guidance the two prints most likely to move the September debate.
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