SpaceX Targets Span $75 Bear to $900 Bull Case
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- SpaceX carries an average analyst price target of about $240, implying a $3.2 trillion valuation — more than Microsoft, Amazon, or Tesla.
- Citi's John Godyn has a $200 price target with a $900-per-share bull case (~$12 trillion valuation), calling it 'a milestone along the path to $900-plus' contingent on Starship engineering achievements demonstrated at scale.
- Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas has a $300 target, a $600 bull case (assuming Starship operational in 2026, the Terafab semiconductor facility, and orbital AI satellites succeed) and a $75 bear case (Starship delayed until 2029).
- Cantor Fitzgerald's Colin Canfield models a ~$740/share bull case (2030 EPS of ~$11 at 100x P/E) versus a ~$100/share downside (~EPS $8 at 20x).
- SpaceX isn't expected to turn profitable until 2027 per FactSet, with capital spending needs keeping it cash flow negative for years and dependent on debt and equity markets.
- Starship could cut orbital launch costs to tens or hundreds of dollars per kilogram from thousands; Starlink already exceeds 10 million subscribers with profit margins above 60%.
- SpaceX stock rose 1.3% in premarket trading to $150.20 on the day of the article, while S&P 500 and Dow futures gained 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively.
Why it matters: SpaceX trades around $150 while analyst targets span a 12-fold range — from Jonas's $75 bear (Starship delayed to 2029) to Godyn's $900 bull (Starship at scale). That dispersion concentrates the entire valuation debate in a single engineering variable, forcing secondary-market investors to underwrite a near-binary bet on reusability economics rather than near-term earnings.
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