BTC price bull market to begin in September? Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
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- Bitcoin dropped toward $62,500 after the weekly close and remains rangebound in a $61,000–$65,000 corridor, with trader Lennaert Snyder citing $63,600 as a short entry point and a "most healthy" downside target under $57,800.
- Trader Ryker argued on X that Bitcoin's next bull cycle will begin in September or October of this year, claiming market makers will frontrun the consensus view that the 2026 bottom remains ahead.
- A weekly death cross — where the 50-week SMA crosses below the 100-week SMA — is forming, with trader Jelle noting the last such signal appeared in September 2022, just months before the previous bear-market bottom.
- The US-Iran conflict re-emerged as a macro headwind over the weekend when Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, pushing WTI crude oil to $75 per barrel (up nearly 12% from July lows) and lifting US two-year Treasury yields above 2.35%, their highest in 16 months.
- New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his semiannual monetary policy report to the House Financial Services Committee alongside June CPI and PPI releases, with CME FedWatch showing markets expect rates unchanged until a possible 0.25% hike in September.
- CryptoQuant data shows wallets holding 100–1,000 BTC distributed roughly 67,000 BTC on July 13, the cohort's largest selling event since February 19, which contributor Amr Taha noted has historically preceded bullish BTC reversals.
- Analyst Michaël van de Poppe pushed back on the Iran-driven narrative, attributing recent weakness instead to Japanese bond yields and a weakening yen, and projecting a Bitcoin breakout if JGB yields break down in the next one to two weeks.
Why it matters: With Bitcoin stuck in a $61K–$65K range, the forming death cross could either repeat its 2022 role as a precursor to a multi-month bottom or break down under compounding pressure from rising oil (WTI up nearly 12% from July lows) and climbing Treasury yields (2-year above 2.35%); midsize holders selling 67,000 BTC at the fastest pace since February tilts the near-term setup toward volatility rather than a clean directional move, leaving Ryker's September bull-cycle call as a high-conviction but still unconfirmed thesis for current traders.
