Rate-Hike Odds Surge to 12% as Global Bond Yields Spike
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- CME FedWatch now prices 12% odds of a Fed rate hike at the April meeting, up from 0% one week ago — a sharp reversal from the prevailing view that 2026 would bring rate cuts.
- Oil prices are up 50% in three weeks since the Iran conflict began, with February headline inflation at 2.4% and core at 2.5%, both above the Fed's 2% target.
- The 10-year US Treasury yield jumped 10 basis points Friday to 4.38%, up from under 4% at the start of March, while UK 10-year gilt yields topped 5% for the first time since 2008.
- The S&P 500 is on track for a fourth straight weekly decline, down more than 5% since late February, with the Nasdaq dropping 1.2% on Friday.
- Precious metals have reversed sharply — gold fell from ~$5,500 to $4,569 per ounce, and silver crumbled from $95 to $69.50.
- Bitcoin is hovering around $70,000, up modestly since the start of March and one of the best-performing assets since the war began; Bitwise's Andre Dragosch called it "the canary in the macro coal mine."
Why it matters: The 12% chance of an April rate hike — up from zero a week ago — alongside 50% oil gains and UK gilt yields topping 5% since 2008 has repriced the cost of money across asset classes. Bitcoin holding near $70,000 while gold drops from ~$5,500 to $4,569 sharpens the macro hedge debate.
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