Bitcoin bottom signals flash as STH-SOPR turns green
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- Frank, a Bitcoin quant account named after economist Frank A. Fetter, said "every bottom signal has flashed or is flashing" and that the bottom will be "very obvious in hindsight."
- The 200-week simple moving average's ninth quantile — which previously marked reversals at the 2022 bear market bottom and the March 2020 COVID crash — is back in the reversal zone.
- The short-term holder spent output profit ratio (STH-SOPR) flipped green as short-term holders began realizing profits on minor recoveries, a pattern Frank called "a characteristic of a bull market."
- CryptoQuant contributor Trader Germini countered that STH-SOPR hasn't yet reached the ~0.93 capitulation level seen in prior local bottom zones and "has not yet shown a strong short-term holder capitulation signal."
- Multiple onchain indicators and price yardsticks are hitting levels not seen since 2022, adding to a growing consensus among market participants that BTC's downtrend is nearing its end.
Why it matters: The 'textbook bottom' thesis rests on two named indicators — the 200-week SMA ninth quantile returning to prior reversal zones and STH-SOPR flipping green — but CryptoQuant's ~0.93 benchmark for prior capitulation events gives short-term holders a concrete level to watch before the bullish case is confirmed.
