Why Gaza peace deals keep unraveling
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- Trump's Board of Peace published a 15-point Gaza roadmap in late July calling for Hamas to hand its weapons to a committee of Palestinian technocrats, certified by an international body, and for Israel to withdraw in phases; Israel officially rejected the plan on August 9.
- After rejection, Jared Kushner flew to meet Hamas representatives, then to Jerusalem where it was proposed the weapons would instead be supervised by an American general; on August 17 the Board of Peace assured Benjamin Netanyahu Israeli forces would not leave Gaza until Hamas disarmament was complete.
- The University of Edinburgh's Peace Agreement Database recorded four 2025 Gaza agreements — a January ceasefire, two October agreements, and a November UN resolution — and found that none established who certifies compliance, who adjudicates disputes, or how the process resumes after a breach.
- The January 2025 deal was the most detailed, naming hostage/prisoner exchange figures, troop-withdrawal corridors, and return-home sequencing, but its guarantors (US, Egypt, Qatar) were only asked to 'work toward continued negotiation'; the deal's first phase ended March 1 and Israel resumed bombing March 18.
- The October 10 agreement created a US Central Command-run center in Israel to coordinate aid and monitor the ceasefire, but aid workers and UN staff reported continued aid restrictions and no progress on Gaza's governance after two months.
- The November UN resolution officially endorsed Trump's Comprehensive Plan, established the Board of Peace as head of a new transitional body, and opened a path to Palestinian statehood contingent on Palestinian Authority reform and Gaza redevelopment — but appointed nobody to judge when those milestones were met.
- The October 13 Trump Declaration for Enduring Peace and Prosperity was signed by the US, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey, but neither Israel nor Hamas signed; the article notes 'four governments cannot promise tolerance and human rights on behalf of two parties that did not sign.'
Why it matters: Each new Gaza agreement has tried to fix the previous one's gaps on paper without installing an arbiter both sides accept in advance — and the roadmap's verification function has already been downgraded from a multilateral committee to a single American general, meaning the mechanism designed to prevent the next deadlock is now the most contested one.
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