Community Shield Winners Rarely Win the Premier League
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- Arsenal takes on Manchester City at Cardiff's Principality Stadium on Sunday for the Community Shield, with 47% of Premier League champions since 1992-93 not even participating in the corresponding Shield match.
- Only 8 of 34 Community/Charity Shield winners since 1992-93 have gone on to win the league that season, with just 1 of the past 15 Shield winners claiming the title.
- Shield losers have actually won more league titles than winners (10 total since 1992-93), including Manchester City for three consecutive years from 2021 to 2023.
- Past Premier League winners have won the Community Shield 18 of 34 times (53%), though FA Cup winners have lately dominated, taking 8 of the past 12 Shields.
- Shield goalscorers' subsequent seasons are inconsistent: Cole Palmer netted in 2023 and scored 22 Premier League goals for Chelsea, while Erling Haaland failed to score in his 2022 Shield debut but finished with 52 goals that season.
- Last year's Shield saw Crystal Palace beat Liverpool, with Palace finishing 15th in the Premier League (though winning the Conference League) and Liverpool ending 5th.
Why it matters: Historical data shows the Community Shield has essentially no predictive power: teams that lose it have won more league titles than winners since 1992-93 (10 to 8). For Arsenal and Manchester City, the data suggests Sunday's result has rarely correlated with the actual Premier League champion.
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