Experts Split 2026 WNBA Finals Picks: Lynx and Liberty Co-Favored
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- Minnesota Lynx were picked by experts Ayala and Gonzalez to win the 2026 title, which would make them the first franchise in WNBA history to win five championships; Minnesota is tied for the best record at 16-6 despite Napheesa Collier missing the entire season and Dorka Juhász battling injury.
- New York Liberty were picked by experts Gibbs and Maloney to win it all, with Gibbs predicting a rematch of the 2023 Finals against the Aces; New York sits in fifth place despite owning a 6-1 regular-season record and 4-1 postseason/Commissioner's Cup mark against Las Vegas over the past 2.5 seasons.
- Las Vegas Aces, the reigning champions, received no expert pick to repeat despite tying Minnesota for the league's best 16-6 record, with concerns cited about their 107.1 defensive rating (10th in the league) and the loss of Chennedy Carter.
- Rookie Olivia Miles has been a seamless addition for Minnesota as the team's first true point guard in a while, helping the Lynx lead the league in 3-point shooting while posting the best defense (99.7 defensive rating) under coach Cheryl Reeve.
- The Liberty's championship case rests on top-five offensive (109.8) and defensive (104.7) ratings, though injuries to key players — including Sabrina Ionescu, who has played only 10 games — and uncertainty around Betnijah Laney-Hamilton's rotation role have fueled inconsistency.
- The Valkyries and Dream were flagged by Maloney as dark-horse Finals contenders, with Golden State posting a league-best 35.1 bench points per game and a 101 defensive rating, while Atlanta ranks fourth in defense (103.7) but last in bench scoring (15.7 points per game).
- The top seven teams in the WNBA are separated by just three games at midseason, underscoring league parity that has kept the Aces, Lynx and Liberty from pulling away from the pack as title favorites.
Why it matters: The Aces going unpicked by all four experts — while still tied for the league's best record — signals that even a championship roster can be judged by October potential rather than May standings, and Minnesota's emergence as the favorite without Napheesa Collier makes her return the swing variable for the entire league's title race.
