Markets pivot to September Fed rate hike: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week — SkimNews
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- Federal Reserve rate hike odds for September jumped to roughly 60% from 41.4% the prior week after new chair Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole debut to call inflation "too high" and declare forward guidance had "overstayed its welcome"
- Oil markets spiked on renewed US strikes on Iran, pushing Brent crude back above $90/barrel and WTI past $85, while Donald Trump posted an AI-generated video appearing to show the bombing of Iran's Kharg Island oil hub
- Trump separately announced a US-Venezuela oil deal targeting 1.5 million barrels per day from 65 billion barrels of reserves worth approximately $5.4 trillion, calling it "the biggest oil deal in history"
- Bitcoin defended its 50-week EMA at $77,269 for a second consecutive week but has yet to reclaim the 50-week SMA at $80,307, with monthly gains hovering near 25% ahead of the August candle close
- BTC resistance extends to $86,000 where ask liquidity is thickening, and Glassnode data shows 1.05 million BTC held by long-term holders carries a cost basis between $83,000 and $86,000
- CryptoQuant found that wallets holding 100+ BTC added roughly 60,000 BTC in August while wallets under 1 BTC sold about 14,000, concluding that "large holders absorbed the breakout" while smaller investors "used the rally as an exit"
Why it matters: With 60% odds of a September Fed hike and oil back above $90 on Iran strikes, Bitcoin's roughly 25% August rally must break a $80,000–$86,000 resistance band where 1.05 million BTC in long-term holder supply sits overhead — a failure to clear that zone risks undermining the large-investor accumulation that Glassnode and CryptoQuant both identified as August's defining flow.
Ask SkimNews
