Farmers' Faith in Trump Wavers as Iran War Bites
Get the Geopolitics newsletter
Daily geopolitics — wars, elections, sanctions, the diplomatic moves that move markets. Free.
- Global energy and fertilizer prices have skyrocketed as the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran throttled Middle East energy production and strangled flows through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing U.S. diesel prices to their highest level since 2022.
- U.S. farmers were already under severe pressure before the war from Trump-era tariffs, an immigration crackdown straining farm labor, a gutted Department of Agriculture, and abrupt funding freezes that halted millions in promised grants and loans.
- The Purdue University Ag Economy Barometer found roughly two-thirds of respondents expect a "very negative" or "negative" impact on their farm's 2026 net income from the Iran war, versus only about 13% with positive views.
- Farmer sentiment on the country's direction fell sharply, with those saying "right direction" dropping from 74% in July 2025 to 52% in May, while "wrong track" rose from 26% to 48%.
- Trump traveled to Wisconsin for an agriculture roundtable, promised "good things" within 90 days, and hinted at expanding relief after his first administration paid roughly $28 billion in trade-war bailouts and announced another $12 billion in December.
- Fertilizer prices have eased to pre-war levels for now because most farmers pre-bought for this planting season, but economists warn uncertainty looms for fall purchases as the war's trajectory and regional plant restarts remain unclear.
Why it matters: Farmers backed Trump even through his first-term trade war, which still cost U.S. soybean farmers market share they haven't recovered. With midterms approaching, a 22-point collapse in farmer confidence about the country's direction—and two-thirds bracing for negative income impact—signals a political opening for Democrats, especially since Cornell's Christopher Barrett says past bailouts of $28 billion plus $12 billion "pale" compared to the aggregate losses.
