World Cup Drives Prediction Markets to Record Volumes
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- Kalshi saw more than $31 billion in notional trading volume in June, a 70%+ increase from May's $17.9 billion, with daily volume consistently exceeding $1 billion since the World Cup began on June 11
- Polymarket's international exchange set a new monthly volume record with $10.8 billion+ in June notional trading, reversing an April–May downtrend, while its U.S. platform did $3.5 billion+ (up from $1.77 billion in May)
- Rothera, the joint venture between Susquehanna International Group and Robinhood, debuted in June and immediately hit $2 billion in notional volume, capturing 7% of U.S. prediction market share according to Bank of America
- Team USA tournament-winner bets drew $64 million+ on Kalshi and $122 million on Polymarket, even though the implied odds sit at just 4.3% and 3% respectively
- Open interest has climbed alongside volume — Kalshi's is now above $1 billion, and Polymarket's sits just under $400 million — suggesting sustained rather than fleeting engagement
- Solidus Labs CEO Asaf Meir framed the World Cup as a 'huge pressure test' for prediction markets, saying regulators and institutions are watching whether platforms can 'maintain a level playing field' under sustained high-volume conditions
Why it matters: The June surge — $31B on Kalshi alone, a 70% month-over-month jump — gives prediction markets their first sustained stress test under regulatory and institutional scrutiny, and the numbers may determine whether platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket earn permanent legitimacy or face crackdowns. Robinhood's Rothera capturing 7% of U.S. share in its debut month signals traditional brokerage channels are becoming a distribution pipeline for event contracts.
