Kalshi, Polymarket Volume Soars Past Records on World Cup
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- Kalshi processed more than $31 billion in notional volume in June, a 70%+ jump from May's $17.9 billion, and has held above $1 billion in daily volume since the tournament began on June 11.
- Polymarket's international exchange set a new monthly record with over $10.8 billion in notional volume, reversing an April–May downtrend, while its U.S. platform climbed to $3.5 billion from $1.77 billion in May.
- Rothera, the Susquehanna International Group–Robinhood joint venture that debuted in June, hit $2 billion in notional volume and now captures 7% of U.S. prediction-market volume, per Bank of America.
- USA's tournament prospects have drawn heavy action: more than $64 million on Kalshi and $122 million on Polymarket traded on whether the U.S. wins, with implied odds of just 4.3% and 3% respectively.
- Open interest on Kalshi has climbed above $1 billion, while Polymarket's sits near $400 million — elevated but in line with recent months on its international platform.
- Polymarket launched a knockout-bracket competition offering up to $2 million to a perfect predictor, and Kalshi rebranded its mobile app to "Trade the World Cup," per both platforms' promotions.
- Asaf Meir, CEO of market-integrity firm Solidus Labs, called the World Cup a "huge pressure test" as regulators and institutions scrutinize whether prediction markets can maintain a level playing field at sustained high volume.
Why it matters: The World Cup has compressed a year of growth into a single month for a still-young asset class: Kalshi more than doubled its monthly volume, Polymarket reversed a slide, and a brand-new Robinhood-linked venue captured 7% market share in its first weeks. Regulators are watching whether these platforms can police themselves during a record surge — the precedent set now will shape the next contract category these exchanges tackle.
