Ex-Chinese envoys visit US to gauge Trump trade truce
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- Cui Tiankai and Geng Shuang, China's former ambassador to the US and former deputy UN representative respectively, visited the US in June to meet American China-policy experts across the political spectrum and read the Trump administration's intentions on the trade truce signed in late 2025.
- Concurrently, US-China policy experts traveled to Beijing, where Chinese officials asked them about the November midterms and 2028 presidential election; attendees said there was a consensus the truce could hold through the end of Trump's term, with a possible "golden period" lasting until 2029.
- The May summit yielded concrete deliverables: China agreed to buy at least US$17 billion of US farm goods through 2028, and both sides pledged to reduce levies on certain products — momentum that advisers say should feed into the planned Trump-Xi summit around September 24.
- Risks to the truce persist: China imposed export controls on two US rare earth producers, while the Pentagon designated Alibaba, Baidu, and BYD as companies supporting the Chinese military, complicating the economic-security landscape.
- China's long-range missile launch in the Pacific drew swift pushback from the US, Australia, and other regional players, adding a military flashpoint to the trade-truce fragility.
- Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke with Secretary of State Marco Rubio by phone in early July, urging the US to handle Taiwan with "extra prudence."
- Da Wei, director of Tsinghua University's Centre for International Security and Strategy, flagged a confidence gap — Chinese officials are optimistic the truce holds, but American scholars he met in New York were "more pessimistic," questioning whether stability rests on leader goodwill or structural factors.
Why it matters: The truce — built on leader-level goodwill rather than structural fixes — hinges on China delivering $17 billion in US farm purchases through 2028 while simultaneously imposing rare-earth export controls and launching a Pacific missile. Former State official Dan Kritenbrink warned that overconfident Chinese miscalculation in managing Trump is a real risk ahead of the September 24 summit.
