Russia’s massive Black Sea problem is worse than it looks
Why it matters: Russia's naval operational capabilities in the Black Sea are severely degraded, impacting its strategic projection.
- Russian Navy is nominally the dominant force in the Black Sea, but has effectively ceded control to Ukraine's uncrewed surface drones.
- Russia's key base at Novorossiysk is now considered increasingly untenable due to mounting drone attacks.
- Moscow must now decide if it is willing to absorb further warship losses to maintain its presence in the Black Sea.
Despite its paper dominance, the Russian Navy is facing an escalating crisis in the Black Sea, with its key base at Novorossiysk becoming increasingly untenable due to effective Ukrainian uncrewed surface drone attacks. This forces Moscow to choose between absorbing further warship losses or ceding more operational control.
