Trump Demands Iran Surrender; Oil Jumps 11%
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- Trump declared on Truth Social there will be 'no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,' apparently ending hopes of a negotiated settlement
- WTI crude oil extended gains to 11% on the day, reaching a multi-year high near $90 per barrel as the Iran rhetoric spiked supply-risk premia
- Nasdaq futures dropped 1.8% and bitcoin fell 5% to $68,800 as risk markets sold off across equities and crypto
- U.S. payrolls unexpectedly declined by 92,000 jobs in February, with the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.4% from 4.3% the prior month
- Economist Heather Long wrote that the U.S. has lost jobs since April 2025, with total job gains from May 2025 to February 2026 now at -19,000
- The Federal Reserve faces a stagflationary crosscurrent — a cooling labor market that would normally trigger cuts, but inflation still above its 2% target and an 11% oil spike threatening to worsen prices
- Interest rate traders are pricing just 4% odds of a March Fed rate cut and 17% for April, reflecting the policy stalemate
Why it matters: The Fed is boxed in by conflicting signals: February's surprise 92,000 job loss would normally unlock rate cuts, but inflation above the 2% target combined with an 11% oil surge triggered by Trump's Iran ultimatum threatens to push prices higher. Traders are pricing just 4% odds of a March cut, and risk assets — Nasdaq futures down 1.8%, bitcoin down 5% — are absorbing the stagflationary crosscurrent while the jobs picture quietly deteriorates beneath the geopolitical headlines.
Ask SkimNews
