Trump underestimated Iran’s resilience, gutting his exit options
Why it matters: The conflict's unexpected escalation could lead to a global oil and gas shortage if the Strait of Hormuz is closed.
- US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu initiated the conflict without a clear rationale, goals, or exit strategy, underestimating Iran's defensive capabilities.
- Iran has demonstrated unprecedented preparedness, striking US bases and Israel, and threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, challenging the US and Israeli belief in a quick military victory.
- Iran's resilience stems from decades of building a robust system of authority, governance, and security, supported by revolutionary Islamism, ideological rigidity, pragmatic flexibility, and a dedicated security apparatus.
- Prior to the war, Iran was under significant domestic pressure and international criticism, and was close to a nuclear deal mediated by the Omani foreign minister in late February.
The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has plunged the Middle East into an unforeseen confrontation, as President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu underestimated Iran's robust defensive capabilities and resilience. Their initial strategy, predicated on a swift capitulation and regime change, has faltered, necessitating a pivot towards a diplomatic solution.
