China weathering Iran war with minimal damage
Why it matters: The war subtly shifts global power dynamics, testing China's resilience and revealing US military dominance.
- Observers are divided on the war's impact on China, with some arguing it's "unsettling China and its ambitions" while others contend "China gains [an] edge."
- Aaron Glasserman of the University of Pennsylvania notes that "Iran needs China, but China does not need Iran," highlighting Iran's non-vital economic role for Beijing.
- China's strategic petroleum reserve can cover 100-120 days of oil usage, making a short-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz manageable.
- Shi Yinhong, a Chinese international relations scholar, acknowledges the "superior" US military power demonstrated in the conflict, indicating a loss of prestige for the Russia-China bloc.
- China has significantly deeper trade relationships with other Gulf states, such as Saudi Arabia, than with Iran, underscoring the pragmatic nature of its Iran ties.
While some observers claim the US-Israeli war against Iran is either significantly harming or helping China, a nuanced assessment suggests it's a net negative, though not substantially. China's economic ties with Iran were pragmatic rather than vital, and Beijing possesses strategic reserves and alternative routes to mitigate energy supply disruptions. However, the conflict weakens the Russia-China bloc's prestige compared to the US, whose military prowess has impressed even Chinese analysts.
