ASEAN is split down the middle: Thailand's hosting of Min Aung Hlaing and push for dual-track Myanmar re-engagement contradicts the Philippine chair, while the junta is openly betting on Bangkok's friendlier 2028 turn over Singapore's 2027 60th-anniversary chair. Parallel to the Myanmar fracture, the bloc faces a US tariff reckoning over Chinese-component assembly exports. Watch whether Thailand's 2028 chair and the Sep 23 value-creation proposal hold the bloc together.