SpaceX shares closed at a record-low $149.47 on July 8, despite $4.3-$8 billion in forced Nasdaq-100 buying. Traders on Kalshi predict the Nasdaq-100 will end 2026 above 30,000, but only see a 27% chance of reaching 33,000, suggesting a rotation away from tech. Watch for the impact of unlocked shares on SpaceX's price.