Gas Prices Climb on Iran Deal Collapse, Threatening GOP
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- Gas prices have climbed back toward $4/gallon after the July 8 truce collapse, up from roughly $3.75 earlier this month, having already spiked from $2.98 before the Feb. 28 war start to above $4.50 in May.
- Trump has repeatedly promised gas will "drop like a rock" when the war ends and told Fox Business oil will be a "yo-yo" until then — but the article notes the war shows no signs of ending.
- Stanford's Jon Krosnick found in a 2016 study that each 10-cent gas price increase causes a 0.6% drop in the president's approval rating, with the effect extending to the president's party in midterm elections.
- Iran's refusal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz shows Trump "can't dictate events like he's used to," and AEI's Desmond Lachman warned the president "could be in deep trouble in the election" if the waterway stays closed through November.
- A PBS/NPR/Marist poll found nearly 8 in 10 Americans say gas prices are straining their household budgets.
- The Republican-controlled Congress has little to point to on voter affordability — it passed a housing bill Trump publicly panned, and Trump has fixated on unproven voter fraud claims instead of economic messaging.
Why it matters: With gas back near $4 from $3.75 in a matter of weeks and roughly four months until Election Day, Republicans face Krosnick's documented penalty — a 0.6% approval drop per 10-cent increase — while their only recent affordability legislative win is a housing bill Trump himself rejected. Iran, by holding the Strait of Hormuz closed, retains a lever to keep prices elevated through the midterms regardless of Trump's promises.
