Projecting the CFP top 12 after Week 2: How far does Ohio State fall? — SkimNews
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- Texas completed a historic 20-point comeback against AP No. 1 Ohio State, becoming the first FBS team since at least 2004 to overcome such a deficit against a top-ranked opponent (teams had been 0-188 in that scenario entering Saturday), with 21 unanswered fourth-quarter points sealing the win.
- Ohio State slips only to No. 2 in the projection — the source argues the selection committee historically doesn't penalize one-point road losses to top teams, noting Texas itself missed the playoff last year despite beating Ohio State because of bad losses to Florida, Mississippi State, and Kentucky.
- Miami claims the No. 3 spot with dominant early-season form, beating Stanford and Florida A&M by a combined 122-13, though critics noted the committee typically discounts lopsided FCS wins and Stanford was hampered by injuries.
- Notre Dame sits at No. 4 after a 52-0 rout of Rice, with the source giving the Irish a 30.9% chance to win out — the highest of any team in the country — and a key Nov. 7 clash against Miami looming.
- LSU holds No. 5 behind its Week 1 win over Clemson, but QB Sam Leavitt's three-interception performance against Louisiana Tech exposed concerns, and a brutal November stretch (Texas A&M, Alabama, Texas) could eliminate their margin for error.
- Georgia checks in at No. 6 with QB Gunner Stockton throwing eight touchdowns and zero interceptions across two games, though the Bulldogs are hurt by playing only unheralded opponents — every team ranked above them has faced a Power 4 foe.
- Indiana rounds out the listed projection at No. 8, held back by the No. 72 strength of schedule — well behind No. 7 Ole Miss (No. 24) — with their Week 1 win over Louisville being the résumé anchor keeping the Rebels ahead.
Why it matters: Texas now controls its path to the No. 1 seed and the right to choose its own quarterfinal site, while Ohio State's margin for error shrinks dramatically before a defining midseason stretch at Indiana, at USC, and home against Oregon — three games that will likely determine whether the Buckeyes climb back or fall further in the committee's eyes.
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