S&P 500 Down 3.5% in 2026, JPMorgan Warns of Bumpy Ride
Get the Finance newsletter
Daily finance — markets, central banks, M&A, the prints that move money. Free.
- S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq each fell around 5% in March, capping a losing quarter, though stocks rallied on the final trading day on hopes for an end to the Iran war.
- Jack Manley, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, warned markets will be "extremely sensitive to headlines, both positive and negative" and described 2026 as a "choppy, bumpy ride" — though still a good time to be taking risk.
- JPMorgan Asset Management analysis of two decades of S&P 500 data found that 6 of the market's 10 best days happened within two weeks of its 10 worst days, and investors who stayed fully invested earned the best returns.
- The S&P 500 posted three consecutive years of double-digit gains (~16% in 2025, 23% in 2024, 24% in 2023) but is down about 3.5% year-to-date in 2026, putting it off pace to match recent performance.
- Manley noted the U.S. intervention in Venezuela, talk of acquiring Greenland, and the collapse of the Japanese bond market were already stoking uncertainty before the Iran conflict, saying "it's not like this market was on fire before the conflict kicked off."
- Brian Schmehil, a CFP and managing director of wealth management at The Mather Group, said the real value of a financial advisor in the age of AI will be understanding clients' emotions rather than picking stocks or crafting tax strategy.
Why it matters: Investors who try to time the turbulence risk missing the market's best days, which JPMorgan's data shows cluster within two weeks of the worst — so the cost of sitting on the sidelines can be extreme. The actionable hedge Manley and Schmehil offer is diversification across international, fixed-income, and uncorrelated assets like real estate, paired with a written plan and enough cash to avoid forced selling.
Ask SkimNews
