Ukraine Severs Crimea From Russian Energy Supply
Get the Geopolitics newsletter
Daily geopolitics — wars, elections, sanctions, the diplomatic moves that move markets. Free.
- Operation Molochka began July 6 and struck 147 Russian shadow-fleet tankers in its first 10 days — 117 in the Sea of Azov — with Ukraine's unmanned forces commander Robert "Madyar" Brovdi declaring by July 13 that movement through the Kerch Strait had been stopped and oil unloading to Crimea was "reduced to a minimum."
- Crimean occupation governor Sergey Aksyonov declared a state of emergency, admitting authorities "cannot guarantee daily sales of gasoline" nor precise electricity schedules, as Ukraine struck the Saky thermal power plant on July 9, five substations on July 10, and nine more substations plus the Kuban-Crimea electricity transfer point on July 13.
- Ukraine's long-range drone campaign hit 172 targets in June and nearly 700 in the first half of 2026, causing damage estimated at $6.1 billion, including strikes on the Syrzan refinery 700km from Ukraine and the Neftekhim Salavat refinery 1,200km away.
- Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak acknowledged on July 10 that Russian petrol refineries were "partially out of service due to incursions," while Rosstat reported monthly petrol inflation jumped 6.9% in June and Russian petrol production had fallen to roughly two-thirds of seasonal needs.
- Commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskii said Russia's rate of advance in the first half of 2026 had "more than halved" versus last year, with Ukrainian drone production now outpacing Russia's at a 1.6:1 ratio and Ukrainian forces conducting two-thirds as many offensive actions as Russian forces.
- President Zelenskyy inaugurated the FREYA ballistic missile program on July 13 with nine European partners (France, Denmark, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, UK), targeting Europe's first joint offensive ballistic missile capability within 12 months.
- Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov was dismissed after six months on the job — the article's lone noted setback for Ukraine during the week — despite having driven drone procurement to four months' worth in that period.
Why it matters: Russian refining capacity is down to roughly two-thirds of seasonal needs with petrol inflation at 6.9%, and Ukraine is now hitting roughly 200 long-range targets a month while outproducing Russia on drones 1.6:1 — yet Syrskii himself warned that "a turning point in the war is still far off," and the ouster of the architect of Ukraine's drone surge introduces real uncertainty about whether Kyiv can sustain this tempo.
Ask SkimNews
