Model That Nailed McLaurin Calls 2026 Fantasy Busts
Get the Sports newsletter
Daily sports — scores, transfers, the storylines from the leagues you actually follow. Free.
- SportsLine's model simulated the 2026 NFL season 10,000 times and flagged Giants WR Malik Nabers as a bust, ranking him outside the top 15 receivers (below DeVonta Smith, Nico Collins, and Zay Flowers) despite an ADP around pick No. 35, citing his torn ACL, a follow-up spring procedure, and OC Matt Nagy's expected run-heavy scheme.
- Bills RB James Cook was also flagged, with the model ranking him RB10 — behind Derrick Henry and Chase Brown — despite an ADP of ~13 overall (5th RB off the board), citing an elevated 2025 fumble rate and Josh Allen's touchdown-vulture presence in Buffalo's offense.
- Terry McLaurin vindicated the model's 2025 bust call by dropping to career lows of 582 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns after a prior season of nearly 1,100 yards and 13 TDs, with the source noting his per-game averages declined across the board even adjusting for injuries.
- An unnamed top-five early-draft receiver is also being faded by the model, which ranks him barely inside the top 10 and labels him one of the league's biggest 2026 busts — his identity is available only on SportsLine.
- SportsLine's model has a multi-year track record, including A.J. Brown as a 2020 sleeper, Jonathan Taylor's 2021 breakout, C.J. Stroud stepping back in 2024, Derrick Henry in 2019, and Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018.
- The 2026 NFL season kicks off Wednesday, Sept. 9, with the consensus top-10 PPR ADP (via CBS) led by Jahmyr Gibbs (1.62), Bijan Robinson (1.94), Ja'Marr Chase (3.38), Puka Nacua (4.44), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (5.44).
Why it matters: Fantasy drafters following ADP consensus could overpay for Malik Nabers (ADP ~35) and James Cook (ADP ~13), two players the model places well below market — and for Cook, the gap exists after two strong seasons, with the model explicitly blaming fumbles and Josh Allen's goal-line poaching. The gated unnamed top-five WR bust represents a potentially large market inefficiency for subscribers who act on it before draft season peaks.
